Weekly eur/pln market structure looks good, so I put in a foundation trade at 4.23 with a wide stop. After the weekly candle finished, I checked for CCI divergence & positioning on the COT report.
Today, CCI divergence is confirmed on the weekly & daily. The CFTC reports that dealers increased their euro shorts & non-commercials are taking profit on euro long positions this week.
Initial foundation trade (4.23) is a 1/3 bell, but looking at the DXY, not sure when I will add to it. So keeping a weather-eye on the DXY for now.
Update: added a bit of outside leverage to the trade, held for a couple weeks and eventually scaled out on the 4-hour chart; closed at a total of +18% of margin. this is an extremely volatile pair and my risk management model was definitely put to the test.
The global macro picture looks squared away: swap dealers are short CAD and long Yen; institutional managers are actively buying Yen contracts. Bond activity indicates risk-off verifying ¥ long positioning. Retail positioning is not optimal and BoJ numbers are due out this week so a wide stop.
The charts show good CCI Divergence on the daily and weekly. Stop is set north of ¥92. Position size is a full bell.
Update: 10/01, order triggered; 10/18, closed at +2.4% of margin;
Similar global macro factors with institutional managers actively closing their euro shorts. CCI divergence on the weekly; stop-loss is set above the weekly high. A correlated trade so I will be trailing the stop on this pair if it triggers. Risk taken is a 2/3 bell.
Update: 10/01, order triggered; 10/18, stopped out, -1.94% loss on equity
Trader Error: this trade was held too long, I was away from my laptop and missed the profit target on the morning of 10/16.
Sails are up on this short trade due to global macro and technical confluence.
On the macro side, the COT report shows swap dealers are stretched long the GBP-USD contract and institutional managers are actively taking profit on their euro long positions. Also, the economic calendar lists favorable winds for the big island pound. However, BoE pirate meeting ahead so I will be keeping a weather-eye and trailing stops.
The weekly shows good CCI divergence and a pair of tweezer tops on the four-hour chart. Order triggered on the second pair of tweezer tops. Lot size is a full bell with a stopper knot set at .9241.
Order triggered at 0.9180
Update: 09/10/2017, 2/3 of trade bulletproofed at 0.9175 & 1/3 of position set to scale-out at 0.9127 –tracking the 4-hour, later trailed to 0.9095.
Update: 09/11/17, closed out 1/3 of position at 0.9095. Managing remainder of position on the daily chart.
Update: 09/18/17, entire position closed; gain on trade +43% of margin
Good CCI divergence on the charts. The economic calendar shows good numbers on the GBP. I expect a DXY pullback. However the economic calendar lists pirate activity this week so will keep my position size 33% of normal with a wide stop.
Update: position open, currently below the 1.185 stop-loss
Position stopped out; risk capped at -7.6% of equity
Daily high-test and double top off the 50 ema. I expect the GBP and USD to apply downward pressure on the Euro. NOK is a commodity currency. Position sizing will be halved due to correlation with EUR/$ short.
Update: position open, currently below the 9.366 stop-loss
Position closed, 08-24-2017: closed out on 200 ema bounce; gain on trade +23.1% of required margin.
Update: took a minor short on AUD/JPY at 87.3; closed position early due to change in retail positioning; gain on trade +15.4% of required margin.
Thank you for visiting my web log. Although this blog is centered around alternative investments, foreign currency exchange & risk managment, you will not see graphs nor price charts scattered about. You will not see any news summaries, news articles or other such rehashed fear & confusion. I have spent an immense amount of time, energy and sleepless nights (i.e. life) studying charts, analyzing price movement, spotting trends, memorizing formulas, determining correlations and pouring over grueling finance books. What for? For why? Well, to decipher the code, navigate the matrix and predict the future, of course.
That is the past.
This blog reflects process. And right now, the process is refined, the models are in place and the Mind is set. God is in the Winds. And when the Winds gust, the simple truth is that either your sails are up or your sails are down. Make preparations before the storm. Here, I will tell you when I hoist the Mainsail, why I lower it, or if I’m just reducing sail to prevent taking on too much risk.
In the sidebar, you will only find links to those resources that I personallyuse or have personally contributed to. If the quality or status of the resource has diminished, the link will be promptly removed.
Good sailors know the ocean is unforgiving, relentless and beautiful; they always signal other ships when a storm is coming and when the coast is clear, so that is what I will do for you …there is enough of God’s blue ocean for everyone to enjoy.