Sails Up

Long The Japanese Yen.

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↓ CAD/¥

The global macro picture looks squared away: swap dealers are short CAD and long Yen; institutional managers are actively buying Yen contracts.  Bond activity indicates risk-off verifying ¥ long positioning.  Retail positioning is not optimal and BoJ numbers are due out this week so a wide stop.

The charts show good CCI Divergence on the daily and weekly.  Stop is set north of ¥92.  Position size is a full bell.

Update:  10/01, order triggered; 10/18, closed at +2.4% of margin;

 

↓ €/¥

Similar global macro factors with institutional managers  actively closing their euro shorts.  CCI divergence on the weekly; stop-loss is set above the weekly high.  A correlated trade so I will be trailing the stop on this pair if it triggers. Risk taken is a 2/3 bell.

Update: 10/01, order triggered;  10/18, stopped out, -1.94% loss on equity

Trader Error:  this trade was held too long, I was away from my laptop and missed the profit target on the morning of 10/16.

Sails Up

↓€/£

Sails are up on this short trade due to global macro and technical confluence.

Global Macro

On the macro side, the COT report shows swap dealers are stretched long the GBP-USD contract and institutional managers are actively taking profit on their euro long positions. Also, the economic calendar lists favorable winds for the big island pound. However, BoE pirate meeting ahead so I will be keeping a weather-eye and trailing stops.

Technicals

The weekly shows good CCI divergence and a pair of tweezer tops on the four-hour chart.  Order triggered on the second pair of tweezer tops.  Lot size is a full bell with a stopper knot set at .9241.

Order triggered at  0.9180

Update:  09/10/2017,  2/3 of trade bulletproofed at 0.9175 & 1/3 of position set to scale-out at 0.9127 –tracking the 4-hour, later trailed to 0.9095.

Update:  09/11/17, closed out 1/3 of position at 0.9095.  Managing remainder of position on the daily chart.

Update:  09/18/17, entire position closed; gain on trade +43% of margin

Antique Maps of the WorldCelestial MapAndres Celariusc 1708
circa 1708

European Monetary Union: Flash PMI

Emerging Markets: Flash PMI

EMU: Purchasing Manger’s Index

This week the Flash PMI for the EMU will be released.  The flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector output.

The flash data are released around ten days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon 75-85 percent of the survey sample. Results are synthesized into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting).

The report contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The survey is produced by IHS Markit and uses a sample of around 5,000 manufacturing & services firms.

Manufacturing firms located in:

  1. Germany
  2. France
  3. Italy
  4. Spain
  5. Netherlands
  6. Austria
  7. Ireland
  8. Greece.

Services firms located in:

  1. Germany
  2. France
  3. Italy
  4. Spain
  5. Ireland.

The report is significant because other investors/traders value it –economic data such as the PMIs  indicate what the economic backdrop is for the various markets:

  • Equity investors like to see rapid economic growth because that usually translates to higher corporate profits.  However, increased corporate profits may occur without any growth whatsoever.
  • Forex traders like rapid growth as well because that is one indicator of demand for a country’s currency.
  • The fixed income (bond) market prefers slow to no growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly due to inflationary pressure.

So which market do you think the central pirates banks cater to?

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Homanns Heirs c1746

Sails Up

↓ EUR/$

Good CCI divergence on the charts.  The economic calendar shows good numbers on the GBP.  I expect a DXY pullback.  However the economic calendar lists pirate activity this week so will keep my position size 33% of normal with a wide stop.

Update:  position open, currently below the 1.185 stop-loss

Position stopped out;  risk capped at -7.6% of equity

↓ EUR/NOK

Daily high-test and double top off the 50 ema.  I expect the GBP and USD to apply downward pressure on the Euro.  NOK is a commodity currency.  Position sizing will be halved due to correlation with EUR/$ short.

Update:  position open, currently below the 9.366 stop-loss

Position closed, 08-24-2017:  closed out on 200 ema bounce; gain on trade +23.1% of required margin.

↓AUD/¥

Update:  took a minor short on AUD/JPY at 87.3;  closed position early due to change in retail positioning; gain on trade +15.4% of required margin.

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Confluence

Preparations are key.

Preparations

Would you cast off the lines before checking for foul weather?  How about leaving port without a radio check?  Ever been at sea without a storm anchor?  Would you enter the harbor without checking the tide?   Only if you’re an Oscar.

To navigate the sea of emotion and fear in the markets, you must be able to asses the waves, weather and readiness of the ship.  All in conjunction with one another.

Some refer to this as “stacking confluence:”

  • Market Condition:  check charts, avoid indecision and choppy waters.
  • Market Phase: enter when the tide pulls back.
  • S/R: go long from support lines & short off resistance lines.
  • Indicators: If you use a compass,  understand its underlying principle.  
  • Price Patterns: Look for one of the primary price patterns.
  • Candlestick Patterns: keep an eye out for deceleration in price.

Any less than four given factors and I tie-off to starboard, sails down.

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Sails Up

Apply risk management to your alternative investments.

Short AUD/JPY

I expect the easterly winds to push down the AUD/JPY this week.  The Reserve Bank of Australia  (recent dovish rhetoric) did not hike rates recently.  Also the Chinese slowdown is putting overall downward pressure on commodity currencies.

However, I always rely on charts for navigable water, such as:

  • a weekly high-test with cci divergence
  • daily decelleration with cci divergence
  • top of a head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart

The Japenese Yen, a safe-haven (funding) currency, may rise above the AUD a bit this week to offset the expected decrease in the DXY.  I will be on the lookout for an updraft to the DXY to signal a flattening or decreasing of the Yen.

Use wide stops, in this case above JPY89.  Cap risk at a predetermined limit that does not change unless something outside of emotion justifies the change.  My target holding period is no more than 10 days, depending on the Winds.

trade closed:  stopped out at JPY89.2   risk capped at -1.9% of  equity.

Short NZD/USD

High probabilility of the DXY  rebounding off 93, good probability of weekend gap in price action to fall, good CCI divergence on daily & weekly.  Conservative lot size and wide stop due to Fed meeting this week.  Stop loss set above USD00.75

trade closed:  stopped out at USD.755  risk capped at -1.1% of  equity.

Read up on the Sintra Accord.

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fairweather & following seas